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How Well Are Inflation Expectations Anchored? Two Datasets Compared
Since January 2012, the Federal Reserve has held a long-run inflation target of 2%. Policymakers consider price expectations to be “well anchored” when inflation outlooks roughly match this 2% target. To examine how well U.S. inflation expectations are anchored, a 2023 article by Kristoph Naggert, Robert W. Rich and Joseph Tracy1 compared data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)2 against the Fed’s 2% target.
In their article, Naggert, Rich and Tracy define the degree of inflation anchoring at a particular time, t, as the sum of squared differences between each SPF respondent’s expectation of future inflation, and the Fed’s target. The sum below represents the average deviation of individual expectations from the 2% goal. An increased (decreased) level of this degree represents poorly anchored (well-anchored) inflation expectations.
In their article, Naggert, Rich and Tracy define the degree of inflation anchoring at a particular time, t, as the sum of squared differences between each SPF respondent’s expectation of future inflation, and the Fed’s target. The sum below represents the average deviation of individual expectations from the 2% goal. An increased (decreased) level of this degree represents poorly anchored (well-anchored) inflation expectations.
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