The next great divergence: How AI could split the world again if we don’t intervene | 국외연구자료

KDI 경제교육·정보센터

Economic Information and Education Center

최신자료

The next great divergence: How AI could split the world again if we don’t intervene

Brookings

2026.01.09

In the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution―driven by new general-purpose technologies like the steam engine and mechanized production―spurred a dramatic split in global fortunes known as the “Great Divergence.” By 1800, most countries were poor: Life expectancy was below 40, and literacy rates rarely exceeded 12%, with “almost no income gap” between regions. By 1900, however, industrialized powers enjoyed vastly higher incomes and lifespans than those left behind.

Artificial intelligence (AI) may play a similar role today. AI is emerging as a new general-purpose technology with enormous transformative potential. It can expand opportunities and unlock breakthroughs in education, healthcare, and productivity. Yet, as we analyze in UNDP Asia-Pacific’s new report “The Next Great Divergence,” AI also carries a serious risk of widening inequality between countries.

This may sound counterintuitive. Many believe AI will level the playing field and unlock new leapfrogging opportunities in education, health care, and productivity. And it can. But our analysis shows that without deliberate intervention, the centrifugal forces may dominate, widening gaps between nations and setting the stage for a “Next Great Divergence.”

목록보기