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Political Ideologies, Redistribution and Local (Mis-)Perceptions of Migrant Stocks and Flows
Do factual immigration updates shift societal concerns across political ideologies? Conducting an online experiment in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, respondents provided local immigrant stock and flow estimates before being randomized to receive realistic information on stocks or flows, framed as constant or rising. Most respondents overestimate stocks and flows, with asymmetries emerging across ideologies. Information treatments lower redistribution and tax concerns by 5.4 percentage points on average. Immigration attitudes remain unchanged. Liberals overestimate stocks most, responding to stock treatments. Conservatives overstate flows more, responding to flow information. This pattern is consistent with motivated reasoning: identity-linked immigration views are resistant to correction, while redistribution concerns are elastic to facts when information targets the migration dimension most salient to each ideology.
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