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Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update
There was a significant drop-off in entries to the United States in 2025 relative to 2024 and an increase in enforcement activity leading to removals and voluntary departures. We estimate that net migration was between ？10,000 and ？295,000 in 2025, the first time in at least half a century it has been negative.
In our assessment, net migration is likely to be very low or negative in 2026 as well.
Reduced migration will dampen growth in the labor force, consumer spending, and gross domestic product (GDP). We estimate the sustainable pace of monthly job growth to be between 20,000 and 50,000 in late 2025 and believe it could be negative in 2026.
In our assessment, net migration is likely to be very low or negative in 2026 as well.
Reduced migration will dampen growth in the labor force, consumer spending, and gross domestic product (GDP). We estimate the sustainable pace of monthly job growth to be between 20,000 and 50,000 in late 2025 and believe it could be negative in 2026.
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