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Making America great again? Evaluating Trump’s China strategy at the one-year mark
This report assesses whether the Trump administration’s second-term approach toward China has produced measurable gains for the United States after one year. It evaluates the administration’s four stated objectives: reindustrializing the U.S. economy, maintaining leadership in artificial intelligence (AI), reducing strategic dependencies on China, and restoring U.S. global standing. The report does not challenge or critique the objectives the administration has set for competing with China. Rather, it measures the United States’ performance against the objectives the administration has identified.
The findings point to a consistent pattern across policy domains: ambition and rhetoric have outpaced tangible results. On reindustrialization, the administration has elevated manufacturing as a strategic priority and publicized trillions of dollars in corporate and foreign investment pledges. Yet key indicators―including manufacturing employment, construction momentum, capacity utilization, and industrial production―have yet to show a sustained expansion of the manufacturing sector. Many headline investment commitments remain nonbinding, repackaged, or subject to domestic and political constraints at home and among allies. At the same time, tariff and policy volatility, as well as cost pressures, continue to deter long-term private investment.
Overall, the Trump administration’s first year record shows strong signaling but limited durable gains. Turning rhetoric into results will hinge on follow-through in the second year, with sustained execution, policy stability, and restoring domestic and international confidence.
The findings point to a consistent pattern across policy domains: ambition and rhetoric have outpaced tangible results. On reindustrialization, the administration has elevated manufacturing as a strategic priority and publicized trillions of dollars in corporate and foreign investment pledges. Yet key indicators―including manufacturing employment, construction momentum, capacity utilization, and industrial production―have yet to show a sustained expansion of the manufacturing sector. Many headline investment commitments remain nonbinding, repackaged, or subject to domestic and political constraints at home and among allies. At the same time, tariff and policy volatility, as well as cost pressures, continue to deter long-term private investment.
Overall, the Trump administration’s first year record shows strong signaling but limited durable gains. Turning rhetoric into results will hinge on follow-through in the second year, with sustained execution, policy stability, and restoring domestic and international confidence.
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