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Fiscal Assessments Through the Lens of Firms: Corporate Perceptions and the Transmission of Fiscal Policy
This paper examines how firm perceptions influence the transmission of fiscal policy. Using natural language processing on corporate earnings calls from 51 countries over two decades, we construct Fiscal Perceptions Indicators (FPI) that capture the incidence, risk framing, and tone of fiscal discussions. Periods of heightened fiscal concern are associated with rising sovereign spreads, weaker investment, and slower output growth. In response to exogenous fiscal shocks, effects on spreads and macroeconomic activity vary systematically with firm sentiment: favorable views compress spreads and strengthen demand. These results underscore the role of perceptions in conditioning fiscal transmission and provide a scalable cross-country measure of fiscal views.
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