Rapid demographic growth and urban expansion are transforming intermediary cities in Kenya and Mozambique. However, limited governance and planning capacity ? along with scarce financial resources ? are driving these cities towards car-dependent systems, which lock in carbon emissions, reduce accessibility and undermine quality of life. Without timely intervention, current choices risk embedding high emissions and social inequalities for decades to come.
Building on the OECD methodology for Systems Innovation for Net Zero and Well-Being, this report develops and applies a practical approach tailored to the realities of intermediary cities in developing countries. Through visioning exercises, systems mapping, and the identification of key areas for transformational change, the analysis demonstrates how Kiambu, Nakuru, Beira and Quelimane can reorient infrastructure investment, land-use planning and mobility policies to achieve low-carbon, people-centred growth. The approach is practical, adaptable and relevant for other fast-growing cities.
Local and national policymakers, development partners, planners and investors will find clear diagnostics, actionable insights and replicable tools to align immediate decisions with long-term climate and well-being goals, turning today’s narrow window of opportunity into lasting progress.