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Fiscal-Monetary Interactions in the United States
How does the fiscal side of the US government respond to monetary policy, and does it matter? We estimate the response of fiscal variables to monetary shocks and the counterfactual response of macroeconomic aggregates under different fiscal rules. Following an interest rate hike, the fiscal authority does not react: spending and transfers remain unchanged, tax receipts fall along with output, and interest payments and debt increase. Monetary policy would be more contractionary if fiscal policy were to stabilize debt through spending or taxes, but less contractionary if it used transfers. Indeed, transfer hikes reduce real debt by raising inflation.
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