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Analyzing Fertilizer Price Interlinkages in the Global Market
We analyze monthly price data for urea, phosphate rock, diammonium phosphate (DAP), triple superphosphate (TSP), and potassium chloride from the World Bank, covering the period from January 1967 to September 2024. The objective is to investigate interdependencies among major fertilizer prices in the global market and to identify the most influential price drivers using parametric inference method, with the results indicating that TSP acts as the primary price leader, followed by potassium chloride. Given the vital role of chemical fertilizers in global agriculture and the dependence of many countries on imports, ensuring price stability is critical, and based on these findings, the study emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring the prices of TSP and potassium chloride in order to anticipate trends in global fertilizer markets.
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