Can satellites predict oil demand? | 국외연구자료

KDI 경제교육·정보센터

Economic Information and Education Center

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Can satellites predict oil demand?

ECB

2026.03.10

We investigate whether satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) ？ a short-lived pollutant primarily emitted by fossil fuel combustion ？ can improve the forecasting of oil demand. After retrieving, cleaning, and aggregating daily satellite data, we integrate NO₂ into a range of forecasting models. Across a panel of advanced and emerging economies, we find that including NO₂ significantly enhances nowcasting accuracy relative to benchmark models based on autoregressive terms and traditional predictors such as industrial activity, prices, weather, and vehicle registrations. Accuracy gains are particularly strong during crisis episodes but remain present in more stable times. Nonlinear models, especially neural networks, yield the largest improvements, highlighting the non-linear link between energy demand and pollution. By offering a timely, globally consistent, and freely available proxy, satellite-based NO₂ data provide a valuable new tool for real-time monitoring of oil demand.

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KDI 경제교육·정보센터

KDI 경제교육·정보센터

경제정책정보

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경제교육

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