전망·동향
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840？2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes ？ based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges ？ and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently. The shock transmits through both supply and demand channels. Prices rise in the full sample but fall post-World War II, a pattern consistent with changes in the monetary policy response and with stronger international retaliation and reciprocity in the modern trade regime.
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