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Pandemic-era inflation dynamics in the euro area: the role of policy and non-policy demand and energy and non-energy supply factors
We analyze the sources of the pandemic-era inflation surge in the euro area using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model. By applying narrative, sign, zero, and inequality restrictions, this study is the first that jointly analyzes the inflationary effects of energy and non-energy supply
andpolicyandnon-policydemandfactors, includingfiscalpolicy, conventionalandunconventional monetarypolicy. Factoring in that energy price dynamics also responded to aggregate demand conditions, we find that the pandemic-era inflation surge in the euro area was driven by a combination of supply and demand factors. Energy-related supply side constraints, even if less important than often estimated, were a key factor in the run up of inflation. Fiscal and monetary policies were accommodative but not the dominant drivers.
andpolicyandnon-policydemandfactors, includingfiscalpolicy, conventionalandunconventional monetarypolicy. Factoring in that energy price dynamics also responded to aggregate demand conditions, we find that the pandemic-era inflation surge in the euro area was driven by a combination of supply and demand factors. Energy-related supply side constraints, even if less important than often estimated, were a key factor in the run up of inflation. Fiscal and monetary policies were accommodative but not the dominant drivers.
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