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KDI 경제교육·정보센터

ENG
  • 경제배움
  • Economic

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    and Education

    Center

최신자료
The Global Credit Cycle
CEPR
2026.04.03
We estimate the global price of credit risk from a large cross section of global corporate bond returns. We show that a single factor, constructed as a nonlinear function of past credit spreads, equity market volatility, and their interactions, prices bond returns in both the time series and the cross section. The factor significantly outperforms alternative measures of global financial conditions, explaining up to 13% of variation in bond-level three-month-ahead returns. A high global price of credit risk further translates into deteriorations in local credit conditions, outflows from global funds, and higher expected returns to global funds.