전망·동향
Climate Change, Food Productivity, and Adaptation in the Production Network
We empirically measure the effectiveness of high-yielding variety (HYV) seeds and irrigation in adapting to climate-related agricultural productivity shocks using data on agriculture production from 1966 to 2011. We find that the usage of these additional inputs in production reduces the impact of extreme temperatures and precipitation on the productivity of rice and wheat. Further, we characterize the mechanics of input adjustments through the estimation of a marginal change in the usage of HYV seeds and irrigation due to extreme temperatures and precipitation. Despite the observed benefits, the marginal rate of additional input usage is low. Motivated by these empirical findings, we build a model of input demand in an economy with interdependent sectors to analytically measure its impact on aggregate social welfare. We find that with the usage of higher varieties of input, the impact of climate-related productivity shocks on aggregate social welfare decreases. In the model, the manufacturing sector supplies additional input to the agriculture sector. This intersectoral dependency via intermediate inputs is characterized using the framework of the production network.
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