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External finance in emerging markets and developing economies: A tale of differences in vulnerabilities
As inflation surged after the COVID pandemic, there was a rapid and sizable monetary policy tightening in the U.S. and other advanced economies. In the past, these tightening episodes triggered external distress in many emerging markets, as external finance became more expensive, currencies weakened, and capital flows reversed. Think of the debt crisis of 1982, the Mexican crisis of 1994-95, or the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Yet in 2021 and 2022, there was little evidence of such stress in major emerging markets. Their increased resilience has been attributed to a combination of factors, including strengthened macroeconomic frameworks, independent and credible central banks, larger foreign exchange reserves, and the adoption of floating exchange rates.1
In this paper, we show that the narrative of improved resilience is well-grounded for large and well-established emerging market economies (such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland), which we term the “first-tier.” At the same time, however, many emerging markets and developing economies fall outside that group. Some, such as Ghana, Sri Lanka, and Zambia, experienced outright external defaults, while many others are facing external distress―characterized by persistent repayment difficulties and heavy reliance on International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending.
In this paper, we show that the narrative of improved resilience is well-grounded for large and well-established emerging market economies (such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland), which we term the “first-tier.” At the same time, however, many emerging markets and developing economies fall outside that group. Some, such as Ghana, Sri Lanka, and Zambia, experienced outright external defaults, while many others are facing external distress―characterized by persistent repayment difficulties and heavy reliance on International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending.
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