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The return of global imbalances? The US case
The U.S. current account deficit―which includes imports and exports of goods and services plus investment income, remittances by workers, and other transfers―nearly doubled between 2019 and 2024 (from 2.1% to 4% of U.S. GDP), and then shrank slightly in 2025 to 3.6%.
In “The Return of Global Imbalances: The US case,” I argue that the post-COVID widening of the U.S. current account deficit reflects a rapid recovery in U.S. aggregate demand from its 2020 trough, which boosted imports (such as chips associated with the AI boom) coupled with weaker demand recovery in trading partners, which restrained growth in U.S. exports. The strength of U.S. demand reflects the massive policy stimulus during COVID, persistently large fiscal deficits thereafter, and rapidly rising investment and asset prices fueled by the boom in artificial intelligence. In U.S. trading partners, stimulus spending was generally lower: The recovery in China and other Asian economies was delayed by lengthier COVID restrictions, and domestic spending in China was negatively affected by the country’s real estate crisis; and European economies faced the negative consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which drove up the cost of their energy imports and other commodities.
In “The Return of Global Imbalances: The US case,” I argue that the post-COVID widening of the U.S. current account deficit reflects a rapid recovery in U.S. aggregate demand from its 2020 trough, which boosted imports (such as chips associated with the AI boom) coupled with weaker demand recovery in trading partners, which restrained growth in U.S. exports. The strength of U.S. demand reflects the massive policy stimulus during COVID, persistently large fiscal deficits thereafter, and rapidly rising investment and asset prices fueled by the boom in artificial intelligence. In U.S. trading partners, stimulus spending was generally lower: The recovery in China and other Asian economies was delayed by lengthier COVID restrictions, and domestic spending in China was negatively affected by the country’s real estate crisis; and European economies faced the negative consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which drove up the cost of their energy imports and other commodities.
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