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Using Global Shocks to Understand the Level and Structure of Executive Compensation
We build a model of CEO compensation that unites principal-agent and assignment models in the face of trade shocks that interact with CEO effort. The model predicts that trade shocks change CEO compensation through scale, volatility, and ability-magnification channels. Using Danish matched worker-firm data, we find empirical support for these channels: (1) Exogenous shocks to trade increase the size and value of the firm and CEO compensation; (2) the share of firm value paid to the CEO is increasing in the size and value of the firm and increasing in the volatility induced by global shocks; (3) Higher-ability CEOs generate increases in firm value that are more than 100 times greater than their compensation, through a combination of mitigating losses and maximizing the return to positive shocks.
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