국제무역
Fiscal implications of demographic shifts in Asia and the Pacific
Demographic shifts stand out as one of the most influential factors shaping fiscal policy. Owing to their relatively predictable nature over a few decades, their impact on fiscal revenues and expenditures remains highly foreseeable. However, the effects of demographic shifts on fiscal policy and economies as a whole ？ such as changes in productivity, labour force participation and fiscal multipliers ？ remain less clear, introducing uncertainty into planning of fiscal policy. As developing Asia-Pacific countries are ageing at a relatively rapid pace, the region has little time to prepare for this new reality (ESCAP, 2022a) and the impacts on various aspects of the fiscal position. This rapidly evolving situation propels fiscal policy into profound transformations, frequently venturing into uncharted territory. The analysis in this policy brief discusses the ramifications of demographic shifts with their impacts on fiscal revenues and expenditures, the sustainability of fiscal and debt positions and fiscal policy choices in Asia and the Pacific. The analysis outlines the trajectory of changes with their potential consequences and risks. The discussion focuses on the impacts on fiscal policymaking, and not how fiscal policy tools can be used to shape demographics.
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