Economic Bulletin | KDI 경제교육·정보센터

KDI 경제교육·정보센터

Economic Information and Education Center

발행물

Economic Trends

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends

Overview The Korean economic recovery is gaining pace in the second half. Private consumption is gradually normalizing; it has expanded to the level of GDP growth rate with household debt restructuring in remarkable progress. Investment, still sluggish, is showing signs of improvement, as transportation equipment investment returned to positive territory in 11 quarters although construction investment was sluggish. Exports (customs clearance basis) continued to be on an upward track, up 13.4 percent in October following a 15.4 percent gain in the third quarter. The net exports contribution to growth has expanded. Manufacturing output escalated its uptrend despite constraining factors such as auto labor disputes. Services output accelerated recovery pace, helped by improving domestic demand. Employment also gathered steam as the number of people on the payroll increased 380,000 in the July to September period, although it rose only by 240,000 in September. Prices maintained downward stability with consumer prices in the 2 percent range and core inflation in the 1 percent range. Real GDP (preliminary) in the third quarter moved up 4.4 percent year-on-year and 1.8 percent quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted), as upbeat exports triggered off an expansion in manufacturing output growth and a recovery in private consumption pushed up service activity. Against this backdrop, domestic demand and exports are balancing out. With continued recovery the Korean economy is projected to achieve growth potential in the fourth quarter. However, external uncertainties such as high oil prices and the global economic conditions linger on. Worsening terms of trade, in particular, have stagnated real GNI, which may put a brake on the recovery pace of consumption. As investment indexes related to future income registered a low growth, efforts to renew growth momentum should be pursued aggressively. * For further details, please refer to the attached file

Nov 2005