Economic Bulletin | KDI 경제교육·정보센터

KDI 경제교육·정보센터

Economic Information and Education Center

발행물

Economic Trends

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends

Overview Economic recovery has gained momentum backed by strong domestic consumption, which has led to the fastest industrial output growth in 54 months, spurring production and investment. The economy added 347,000 jobs year-on-year in September as jobs grew at a faster pace compared with the previous month (256,000) helped by recovering domestic demand. On a month-on-month basis, jobs grew for a fourth consecutive month. Consumer price inflation continued a less than 1 percent increase in October, rising 0.9 percent year-on-year, amid low oil prices. Core inflation, which excludes oil and agricultural products and is more related to demand, remained in the two percent range (2.3%). Mining and manufacturing production growth accelerated month-on-month in September from 0.2 percent to 1.9 percent, as domestic consumption continued to be strong and the production of semiconductors rose following the release of new mobile products. In September service output and retail sales improved for the third consecutive month, rising 1.2 and 0.5 percent, respectively, backed by the Korea Grand Sale, individual consumption tax cuts and Chuseok holiday-related sales. Facility investment surged month-on-month in September, from a 0.9 percent fall to a 4.1 percent rise, led by strong transportation equipment investment, while construction completed increased for the fifth month in a row, up 4.9 percent compared with the previous month, as both building construction and civil engineering works continued to improve. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose for the third consecutive month in September, up 0.7 points, while the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index increased 0.5 points, staying in the positive territory for two months. Exports declined 15.8 percent year-on-year in October due to a high base effect from a year ago, when exports hit the record high of US $51.8 billion, as well as regular maintenance in oil refineries. In October market interest rates and stock prices increased amid rising risk appetite. The Korean won appreciated against both the US dollar and Japanese yen. Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to increase month-on-month in October, rising 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Although economic recovery is gaining momentum thanks to strong domestic consumption, exports remain weak and external uncertainties as to the Feds rate hikes and Chinas economic slowdown are posing risks. The government will work to sustain the current recovery momentum gained through strong domestic consumption as it will implement more than 9 trillion won stimulus packages as planned, and will renew efforts to enhance export competitiveness and successfully carry out the reform of the four areas of the public, education, labor and financial sectors. The government will closely monitor internal and external economic developments as well as examine uncertainties and their possible impact on domestic financial markets, and will be prepared to make appropriate responses if necessary. * For further details, please refer to the attached file

Nov 2015