Economic Bulletin | KDI 경제교육·정보센터

Economic Trends

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends

Overview Service output and retail sales rose from the previous month in May. Manufacturing production and completed construction works fell, as well as facilities investment. Industrial production fell 1.2 percent from the previous month in May. Service output continued to improve (up 2.3%, m-o-m and down 4.0%, y-o-y), and mining and manufacturing production continued to fall (down 6.7%, m-o-m and down 9.6%, y-o-y). Industrial production decreased 5.6 percent year on year. Retail sales rose in May (up 4.6%, m-o-m and up 1.7%, y-o-y). Facilities investment (down 5.9%, m-o-m and up 3.6%, y-o-y) and completed construction works (down 4.3%, m-o-m and down 5.8%, y-o-y) went down. Exports fell 10.9 percent year-on-year in June, declining slowly compared with the previous month backed by more days worked (2 days) and recovering global demand. Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to the days worked, fell (US $2.05 billion (June 2019) US $1.67 billion (June 2020)). The consumer sentiment index (CSI) improved 4.2 points in June to 81.8. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector improved 2 points to 51, and the BSI outlook for July went up 2 point to 51. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for May fell 0.8 points to 96.5, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index dropped 0.3 points to 98.9. The economy lost 352,000 jobs year-on-year in June, service jobs declining at a slower rate and manufacturing job losses accelerating. The unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points from a year ago to 4.3 percent. Consumer prices stayed unchanged from a year ago in June, oil prices continuing to fall and meat prices rising. Core inflation rose 0.6 percent. KOSPI rose in June on expectations of global economic recovery. The won strengthened and Korea treasury yields went up. Housing prices continued to rise in June (up 0.14% up 0.41%, m-o-m), as well as Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (up 0.09% up 0.26%, m-o-m). The economy has seen employment declining at a slow rate and domestic demand continuing to improve. However exports and industrial production remain weak due to sluggish global demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Volatility in the global financial market has eased and some economic indicators improve as major economies are lifting lockdowns, but there are worries over global recession amid continuing uncertainties surrounding the spread of COVID-19 and conflicts between major economies. The government will help the economy take advantage of the recent improvement in domestic consumption, and will work to implement as planned the second-half policies, the 3rd extra budget and the Korean New Deal to boost the economy and prepare for a post COVID-19 world. * For further details, please refer to the attached file

Jul 2020