Economic Bulletin | KDI 경제교육·정보센터

Economic Trends

Current Economic Trends

In August, industrial production, services production and retail sales increased, while facilitiesinvestment and construction investment decreased. In September, job growth increased andconsumer prices growth continued to moderate. In August, total production rose (up 1.2% m-o-m and up 1.1 y-o-y), as industrial production (up 4.1%m-o-m and up 3.8% y-o-y) and services production increased (up 0.2% m-o-m and up 0.9% y-o-y) whileconstruction production declined (down 1.2% m-o-m and down 9.0% y-o-y). In August, retail sales (up 1.7% m-o-m and down 1.3% y-o-y) increased, while facilities investment(down 5.4% m-o-m and up 7.8% y-o-y) and construction investment (down 1.2% m-o-m and down 9.0%y-o-y) decreased. In September, exports grew by 7.5 percent from a year ago, driven by increased exports of the IT sectorincluding semiconductors. The daily average of exports increased by 12.9 percent from a year ago. In September, the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) dropped by 0.8 points to 100.0 month-on-month.The Composite Business Sentiment Index (CBSI) fell by 1.3 points to 91.2 in September, and the CBSIoutlook for October also decreased by 0.1 points to 92.6 month-on-month. In August, the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index and the cyclical indicator of the leadingcomposite index decreased by 0.1 points from the previous month, respectively. In September, the economy added 144,000 jobs compared to the previous year and the unemploymentrate fell by 0.2 percentage points from a year ago to 2.1 percent. In September, the year-on-year growth of Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed down to 1.6 percent. Theindex excluding food and energy prices increased by 2.0 percent, and the index excluding agricultural andpetroleum products increased by 1.8 percent. The CPI for basic necessities rose by 1.5 percent. In September, Korean equity prices fell due to concerns over heightened geopolitical tensions in theMiddle East. The Korean Treasury Bond yields fell folllowing an interest rate cut by the U.S. Fed, and theKorean Won strengthened against the dollar. In September, housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices rose ata slower rate than the previous month (up 0.17% m-o-m and up 0.19% m-o-m, respectively). As prices have continued to moderate and stabilize recently, the Korean economy has been able toshow a sustained recovery, mainly driven by robust performances in the export and manufacturingsectors. Though domestic demand has shown a moderate recovery, particularly in facility investmentand services, the pace of the recovery has varied across sectors. The global economy has generally been on a recovery trend, mainly driven by a rebound in trade and ashift in monetary policy in major economies. However, the pace of recovery differs across regions. Inaddition, geopolitical risks such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the potential for further escalationin the Middle East conflict, and concerns about an economic slowdown in major economies, arecontributing to increased uncertainty. Against this background, the Korean government will seek to implement key policy tasks in a timelymanner, including ensuring price stability, providing customized support for small business owners, andshoring up domestic demand. These efforts will also be pursued along with policies outlined in theDynamic Economy Roadmap which seeks to improve the quality of life of Koreans and enhance thesustainability of the Korean economy. * For further details, please refer to the attached file.

Nov 2024