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Policy Issue

2020-2030 Labor Market Outlook
Mar 2022
The government released the ‘2020-2030 Labor Market Outlook’ report on February 3 that forecasts supply and demand in the labor market. According to the report, Korea’s labor market is projected to face supply constraints as well as a rapid reorganization of the employment structure due to factors such as demographic changes and digital transition.

1. Labor supply outlook
Working age population
  - Working age population growth is predicted to slow down during the 2020-2030 period amid an aging society. The number of persons aged 15-64 will sharply fall by 3.2 million and population growth among those aged 15 and over will drop to 1.34 million.
  - The proportion of young people will shrink rapidly and those of the elderly would likely surge amid low birthrates and population aging.
 
Economically active population
  - The economically active population aged 15-64 is estimated to decline by 1.25 million during the 2020-2030 period. The number of persons aged 15 and over is predicted to grow by 746,000, reaching its peak in 2025 and starting to decline afterwards.
  - The labor force participation rate is projected to fall by 0.2 percentage points among people aged 15 and over, and is expected to increase by 2.8 percentage points among people aged 15-64.

2. Labor demand outlook
  - The number of employed persons aged 15 and over will increase by 0.98 million by 2030.
  - By industry, jobs in services will continue to rise (up 1.13 million) and manufacturing job growth will turn negative (down 2,000).
  - Structural changes in the labor market would likely speed up as technological innovation speeds up economic growth.
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