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Trade wars and global spillovers. A quantitative assessment with ECB-global
This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of substantial tariffs imposed by the second
Trump administration on imports from China and the euro area and their transmission through
direct and indirect channels. Using the ECB-Global 3.0 semi-structural model, we show that
tariffs raise US import prices and lead to tighter US monetary policy, with the managed float
of the renminbi partly offsetting adverse effects in China, while appreciation of the dollar
undermines US export competitiveness. In the euro area, euro depreciation provides limited
output support but intensifies imported inflation and triggers additional policy tightening. We
assess the sensitivity of these results to key assumptions, such as the global amplification of
inflation via dominant US dollar invoicing, partial trade diversion, and alternative monetary
policy frameworks that attenuate monetary tightening and output contraction. Quantitative
assessments of tariffs enacted up to 26 May 2025 and of an escalation scenario indicate significant
global output losses and heightened inflationary pressures, requiring widespread policy rate
increases. Further escalation of the trade conflict magnifies these effects. These findings quantify
the economic cost of tariff related trade disputes and highlight the challenges central banks face
in navigating the trade off between price stability and growth.
Trump administration on imports from China and the euro area and their transmission through
direct and indirect channels. Using the ECB-Global 3.0 semi-structural model, we show that
tariffs raise US import prices and lead to tighter US monetary policy, with the managed float
of the renminbi partly offsetting adverse effects in China, while appreciation of the dollar
undermines US export competitiveness. In the euro area, euro depreciation provides limited
output support but intensifies imported inflation and triggers additional policy tightening. We
assess the sensitivity of these results to key assumptions, such as the global amplification of
inflation via dominant US dollar invoicing, partial trade diversion, and alternative monetary
policy frameworks that attenuate monetary tightening and output contraction. Quantitative
assessments of tariffs enacted up to 26 May 2025 and of an escalation scenario indicate significant
global output losses and heightened inflationary pressures, requiring widespread policy rate
increases. Further escalation of the trade conflict magnifies these effects. These findings quantify
the economic cost of tariff related trade disputes and highlight the challenges central banks face
in navigating the trade off between price stability and growth.
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