최신자료
The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations
We construct a novel measure of one-year-ahead exchange rate forecasts and nowcasts for non-financial firms. We then study a randomized information intervention that provides a subset of firms with a publicly available exchange rate forecast. This information treatment persistently shifts exchange rate expectations and perceptions, with stronger effects for non-exporting firms. We link survey responses with administrative customs data and estimate a positive intertemporal elasticity of import demand to exogenous changes in expected future exchange rates. Our findings highlight the role of intertemporal substitution after anticipated changes in trade costs.
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