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Labor Market Effects of California’s $20 Fast-Food Minimum Wage
California’s AB 1228 raised the minimum wage for large fast-food chains to $20 per hour in April 2024―roughly 77 percent of the state’s median hourly wage, the highest wage floor for fast-food workers in the U.S. Using QCEW data through 2025Q3, I estimate that the policy raised fast-food wages by about 7 percent. A conventional difference-in-differences yields an employment own-wage elasticity (OWE) of ？0.19; synthetic difference-in-differences, which reweights controls to match California’s pretreatment trajectory, shrinks the OWE to ？0.04. Newly available QWI data through 2024Q4 yield estimates that are on average more positive. Across 32 QCEW and QWI specifications, the OWE ranges from ？0.29 to +0.26, bracketing the median OWE of ？0.02 I compute across 27 post-2010 state minimum-wage events despite AB 1228’s much larger bite. The QWI also reveals a sharp reduction in the separation rate, with own-wage elasticities of ？1.7 to ？4.2―several times the restaurant-sector benchmark in Dube et al. (2016) and consistent with a monopsonistic quit-reduction channel. Wage and separation-rate effects concentrate among large employers covered by AB 1228, with limited spillovers. The fall in separations also helps reconcile the somewhat more negative QCEW employment estimates.
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