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Renminbi Invoicing Under Dollar Dominance: Evidence on Inertia, Institutions, and Policy
We examine the conditions under which renminbi invoicing has expanded despite the continued dominance of the United States (US) dollar in international trade. Using International Monetary Fund trade invoicing data for 70 economies from 2016 to 2023, we show that RMB invoicing is systematically shaped by trade dependence on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), exchange rate regimes, capital and foreign exchange controls, settlement infrastructure, and the strength of political and institutional ties with the PRC. While dollar-oriented exchange rate regimes and capital liberalization tend to restrict use of the renminbi, renminbi invoicing is expanding in economies with remaining controls and deeper integration into PRC-led financial, logistical, and digital networks, indicating that RMB internationalization is a gradual, complementary process rather than a substitute for the dollar.
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