최신자료
A Low Hire, Low Fire Labour Market
[Main points]
- The unemployment rate continued to hold at 4.9 per cent in the three months to May, remaining slightly below our estimate of the natural rate (5.0 per cent). There is clear evidence of softness in labour demand in recent months, but there has recently been an uptick in inactivity which has acted as a cap on the jobless rate.
- Firms are neither hiring nor firing workers. Instead, they are engaged in a process of consolidation as they attempt to control costs during a period of elevated economic uncertainty.
- Whole economy regular pay growth held steady at 3.4 per cent in the three months to May.
- Our wage tracker indicates that whole economy regular pay growth will slow towards 3.0 per cent by September, driven largely by the private sector where we anticipate a slowdown to 2.4 per cent, while public sector wages hold up.
- Real wage growth is likely to come under pressure as nominal growth slows but price inflation picks up. This will make the job of the new government under Andy Burnham slightly more difficult.
- But if this forecast is realised, the Bank of England will be confident that labour market spillovers resulting from higher CPI inflation will be limited, giving greater credence to our view that it can look through the recent energy-induced inflation spike without having to tighten monetary policy.
- The unemployment rate continued to hold at 4.9 per cent in the three months to May, remaining slightly below our estimate of the natural rate (5.0 per cent). There is clear evidence of softness in labour demand in recent months, but there has recently been an uptick in inactivity which has acted as a cap on the jobless rate.
- Firms are neither hiring nor firing workers. Instead, they are engaged in a process of consolidation as they attempt to control costs during a period of elevated economic uncertainty.
- Whole economy regular pay growth held steady at 3.4 per cent in the three months to May.
- Our wage tracker indicates that whole economy regular pay growth will slow towards 3.0 per cent by September, driven largely by the private sector where we anticipate a slowdown to 2.4 per cent, while public sector wages hold up.
- Real wage growth is likely to come under pressure as nominal growth slows but price inflation picks up. This will make the job of the new government under Andy Burnham slightly more difficult.
- But if this forecast is realised, the Bank of England will be confident that labour market spillovers resulting from higher CPI inflation will be limited, giving greater credence to our view that it can look through the recent energy-induced inflation spike without having to tighten monetary policy.
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