최신자료
A Long-Run Economic Model for Projecting the Finances of the U.S. Government and National Spending on Healthcare: Analysis of Productivity Increases and Health Sector Reform
- In the official models for projections and policy analysis used by the Treasury and the Social Security and Medicare Trustees, many key variables are assumed, largely as a continuation of past trends. Even the CBO, with more sophisticated models, makes certain simplifying assumptions on health care spending, and is based on current law. By contrast, in the model presented in this paper, these variables are simultaneously determined by supply and demand, based on logical functional forms and parameter estimates from the literature or empirical analysis, and the model is based on current policy.
- Within the next twenty or so years, the model predicts that federal government debt will grow significantly beyond historical experience, to be judged unsustainable because the real interest rate exceeds real economic growth. Debt-to-GDP will be 151 percent in 2036, 218 percent in 2046, and 309 percent in 2056, compared to CBO‘s 120 percent in 2036 and 175 percent in 2056. National health expenditures relative to GDP in 2036 is 21.2 percent, 25.4 percent in 2056, and 37.2 percent in 2096, compared to 21 percent in 2036, 24.9 percent in 2056, and 32.8 percent in 2096 by CMS in its alternative projection. In the model, these rising costs of health care come from labor shortage effects in an aging economy because health care is produced in a low productivity, labor-dependent sector ― a dynamic Baumol cost-disease effect.
- Here the impacts of AI-induced productivity increase and a comprehensive health care reform proposals are analyzed, showing that higher productivity, per se, actually worsens the fiscal situation, but health reform would lead to a significant improvement.
- Within the next twenty or so years, the model predicts that federal government debt will grow significantly beyond historical experience, to be judged unsustainable because the real interest rate exceeds real economic growth. Debt-to-GDP will be 151 percent in 2036, 218 percent in 2046, and 309 percent in 2056, compared to CBO‘s 120 percent in 2036 and 175 percent in 2056. National health expenditures relative to GDP in 2036 is 21.2 percent, 25.4 percent in 2056, and 37.2 percent in 2096, compared to 21 percent in 2036, 24.9 percent in 2056, and 32.8 percent in 2096 by CMS in its alternative projection. In the model, these rising costs of health care come from labor shortage effects in an aging economy because health care is produced in a low productivity, labor-dependent sector ― a dynamic Baumol cost-disease effect.
- Here the impacts of AI-induced productivity increase and a comprehensive health care reform proposals are analyzed, showing that higher productivity, per se, actually worsens the fiscal situation, but health reform would lead to a significant improvement.
많이 본 자료
![[2026.06] 원·달러 환율](/userdata/main/incContent/sideLink/28/aaahkMSP2oK2fgXjARu9z20260805144529unfke.jpg)
