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From People’s War to People’s Rule: Rebel Governance and the Foundations of Inclusive Democracy
How does wartime rebel governance shape post-conflict institutions? We study this in Nepal, where the Maoist People‘s War (1996-2006) dismantled a 240-year caste-based monarchy and ended with Maoists entering democratic politics. During the conflict, Maoists established sub-national “People’s Governments” that administered justice, collected taxes, and delivered local services. Using a spatial regression-discontinuity design, we show that exposure to People‘s Governments increased political knowledge and participation especially among historically marginalized indigenous groups (Janajatis). Exposure also reshaped party institutions and inter-party competition: candidate-selection committees in more exposed areas have 26 percent more Janajati members who, drawing on novel implicit-attitude data, exhibit less pro-upper caste bias. Non-Maoist parties‘ Janajati nomination rates nearly double in fully exposed areas, consistent with competition for newly mobilized voters. Nearly two decades on, local governments in exposed areas score 0.2-0.3 standard deviations higher on state capacity indices and receive 13% more in conditional federal grants. These findings show that when rebel groups enter competitive democratic politics, wartime governance institutions can - through citizen mobilization, party gatekeeping, and cross-party competition - enable a more inclusive and capable post-war state.
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