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Selection or More Capital ? Experimental Evidence on High-Growth Entrepreneurs in Kenya
Business plan competitions aim to identify and spur high-growth entrepreneurs. Two experiments were embedded into a Kenyan competition to test how intensity of selection and of capital determine entrepreneurial outcomes. Applicants received a US$9,000 grant after a streamlined process or went through multiple selection stages and were randomly assigned US$9,000 or US$36,000. All grants initially generated jobs, but the impacts only persisted over three years under multi-stage selection. The larger grants did not yield greater long-term impacts than the multi-stage US$9,000 grant, suggesting diminishing returns to capital and limited lumpy investment opportunities. Selection, rather than grant size, determines long-run firm growth.
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