국제금융
How do geopolitical risks affect the euro area economy?
While current indicators measure geopolitical risk from a predominantly US perspective, we build on them to develop a new measure of geopolitical risk that is specifically tailored to the euro area. Our results show that a sudden increase in geopolitical risks in Europe triggers significant recessionary and inflationary effects in the euro area, whereas typical risk measures do not capture these effects. We augment our indicator with two other euro area-specific measures of sanctions and shortages, which together enable a comprehensive analysis of geopolitical risks to the euro area economy.
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