기업경영
Economic Shocks and Income Polarization under Quasi-Marketization: Evidence from North Korea
한국은행은 준시장화된 북한 경제에서 부정적 경제 충격이 소득분포에 미치는 영향을 분석한 보고서를 발표하였음.
This paper examines how adverse economic shocks reshape the income distribution in an economy characterized by quasi-marketization, where market activities expand in the absence of fully institutionalized market-supporting institutions. Using repeated cross-sectional survey data on North Korean defectors from 2012 to 2020, the analysis exploits a plausibly exogenous economic shock during 2014？2015 in North Korea driven by climatic conditions, energy supply constraints, and external trade disruptions. Focusing on changes in distributional shape rather than average inequality, the paper employs the Median Relative Polarization framework and relative distribution analysis. The results show a significant increase in informal income polarization in the post-shock period, driven primarily by an expansion of the lower tail of the distribution rather than by gains at the top. A range of robustness checks indicates that these findings are not solely driven by sample selection. The findings highlight that in quasi-marketized economies without established market-supporting institutions (i.e., fair competition policies, taxation, and social safety nets), adverse shocks may generate asymmetric distributional adjustments―manifesting primarily as lower-tail polarization―rather than uniform increases in inequality.
- 북한은 2000년대 이후 비공식 시장활동이 급속도로 확대되었음에도 공정경쟁 관련 제도, 조세 및 재분배제도, 사유재산권, 복지제도 등 시장기제를 뒷받침하는 법적·제도적 보호장치는 마련되지 못하고 있어 경제적 기회가 정치적 연줄이나 자본 접근성에 따라 불균등하게 배분되는 준시장화 경제의 특징을 보임. 이 연구는 이와같은 ‘준시장화(quasi-marketization)’ 경제에서 외생적 경제충격이 시장소득(비공식소득) 양극화를 어떻게 변화시키는지를 분석함.
This paper examines how adverse economic shocks reshape the income distribution in an economy characterized by quasi-marketization, where market activities expand in the absence of fully institutionalized market-supporting institutions. Using repeated cross-sectional survey data on North Korean defectors from 2012 to 2020, the analysis exploits a plausibly exogenous economic shock during 2014？2015 in North Korea driven by climatic conditions, energy supply constraints, and external trade disruptions. Focusing on changes in distributional shape rather than average inequality, the paper employs the Median Relative Polarization framework and relative distribution analysis. The results show a significant increase in informal income polarization in the post-shock period, driven primarily by an expansion of the lower tail of the distribution rather than by gains at the top. A range of robustness checks indicates that these findings are not solely driven by sample selection. The findings highlight that in quasi-marketized economies without established market-supporting institutions (i.e., fair competition policies, taxation, and social safety nets), adverse shocks may generate asymmetric distributional adjustments―manifesting primarily as lower-tail polarization―rather than uniform increases in inequality.
- 북한은 2000년대 이후 비공식 시장활동이 급속도로 확대되었음에도 공정경쟁 관련 제도, 조세 및 재분배제도, 사유재산권, 복지제도 등 시장기제를 뒷받침하는 법적·제도적 보호장치는 마련되지 못하고 있어 경제적 기회가 정치적 연줄이나 자본 접근성에 따라 불균등하게 배분되는 준시장화 경제의 특징을 보임. 이 연구는 이와같은 ‘준시장화(quasi-marketization)’ 경제에서 외생적 경제충격이 시장소득(비공식소득) 양극화를 어떻게 변화시키는지를 분석함.
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