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What Is Affecting the CPS Data on Shifts in Immigrant and Native-Born Populations?
In September 2025, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an updated projection for net immigration, forecasting that the immigrant population age 16 and older would grow by 408,000 in 2025. However, according to Current Population Survey data, the U.S. immigrant population age 16 and older fell by 1.86 million people between January and November 2025―dropping from 50.40 million to 48.54 million. This decline was entirely concentrated among non-naturalized immigrants.1 (See the table below).
At the same time, CPS data show the native-born population age 16 and older rose by 3.8 million, from 222.3 million to 226.1 million―this increase was far more than the CBO‘s projected growth of about 1 million for this group over this period.2 Furthermore, these numbers suggest a staggering, almost threefold increase in native-born population growth compared with average growth (2014-19) before the COVID-19 pandemic.
At the same time, CPS data show the native-born population age 16 and older rose by 3.8 million, from 222.3 million to 226.1 million―this increase was far more than the CBO‘s projected growth of about 1 million for this group over this period.2 Furthermore, these numbers suggest a staggering, almost threefold increase in native-born population growth compared with average growth (2014-19) before the COVID-19 pandemic.
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