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Leading in spending, lagging in innovation: German defence procurement compared to the UK and Poland
This report is built on an update of the Kiel Military Procurement Tracker, covering the UK, Poland and Germany up to January 2026. We show that orders have grown rapidly in frequency, size and number since the start of Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2025, German military procurement reached roughly €85 bn and dominates overall European military procurement, compared with about €25 bn in the UK and €21 bn in Poland. But is Germany also leading in innovation?
We measure the shift toward the new warfare paradigm in our unique procurement dataset. Based on an LLM-assisted classification of all 736 procurement orders in the dataset, only about 12% of spending is dedicated to new-paradigm systems. In Germany, absolute spending on this category has stagnated over 2020 to 2026 while its share has fallen distinctively. The UK has raised absolute spending but seen its share stagnate; only Poland has increased both the absolute amount and the share of procurement devoted to new-paradigm equipment.
Germany, despite the highest spending levels in Europe, shows the slowest transformation of the three, possibly reflecting the absence of top-level political leadership. A re-orientation of Germany‘s procurement strategy is needed to prioritise early technological change. An update of military and training doctrines would be the necessary complement. Failing to learn the lessons may well mean that credible deterrence capabilities are not achieved or at excessively high costs.
We measure the shift toward the new warfare paradigm in our unique procurement dataset. Based on an LLM-assisted classification of all 736 procurement orders in the dataset, only about 12% of spending is dedicated to new-paradigm systems. In Germany, absolute spending on this category has stagnated over 2020 to 2026 while its share has fallen distinctively. The UK has raised absolute spending but seen its share stagnate; only Poland has increased both the absolute amount and the share of procurement devoted to new-paradigm equipment.
Germany, despite the highest spending levels in Europe, shows the slowest transformation of the three, possibly reflecting the absence of top-level political leadership. A re-orientation of Germany‘s procurement strategy is needed to prioritise early technological change. An update of military and training doctrines would be the necessary complement. Failing to learn the lessons may well mean that credible deterrence capabilities are not achieved or at excessively high costs.
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