Where is AI in GDP statistics? | 국외연구자료

KDI 경제교육·정보센터

Economic Information and Education Center

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Where is AI in GDP statistics?

PIIE

2026.05.22

The artificial intelligence (AI) economy in the United States is growing at extraordinary rates of over 2,000 percent per year yet is leaving only a small mark in the nation‘s GDP figures. This is a measurement gap that, left unaddressed, will become a policy gap―because what cannot be measured cannot be steered. We estimate in a companion PIIE Working Paper (Korinek and McKelvey 2026) that nominal AI compute spending grew by more than 140 percent per year each in 2024 and 2025, raw compute capacity by more than 200 percent per year, and quality-adjusted AI output by more than 2,000 percent per year. The divergence between this picture of the AI economy and the one drawn by conventional GDP statistics is itself an informative macroeconomic signal. Treating the AI sector as a coherent economic entity in its own right yields a preliminary estimate of nominal AI GDP of roughly $250 billion in 2025―comparable in size to the US scheduled passenger airline industry (Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2025)―yet growing at approximately 2,600 percent per year in quality-adjusted terms. We argue that US statistical agencies and economic policymakers should start now to assemble better data on AI activity in AI satellite accounts―focused subsets of the national economic statistical accounts―in coordination with international counterparts, industry and researchers. They should begin to incorporate AI productive-capacity measures into medium-term projections and scenario analysis. Building this measurement infrastructure today, while the AI sector is still small in nominal terms, is needed preparation for a potential phase change in the future after which policymakers may need a strong statistical apparatus to make well-informed decisions about the fast growing AI economy.

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