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Carbon Pricing and Investors’ Reactions: Evidence from Washington State
A recent debate in both academic and policy circles relates to whether financial markets are aligned with long-term climate mitigation goals or rather react to short-run changes in the probability of climate policy tightening ？ and if so by how much. In this study, we provide evidence from Washington state over five different key political events between 2016 and 2024, including the rejection of two initiatives and one senate bill aiming at implementing carbon taxation, the actual implementation of cap and invest, and the rejection of an initiative aimed at repealing it. We analyze stock market reactions to the ex ante uncertain outcomes of such votes. We leverage events taking place in neutral periods as well as during elections, in particular the rejection and approval of two distinct carbon pricing initiatives, both in conjunction with a Republican presidential victory. Our empirical approach allows isolating the effect of news about carbon pricing. Following each shock, we identify readjustments in the stock market, pointing to short-term reactions to climate-policy risk.
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