[Findings]
- The 2012-2013 tax reform in Uganda increased tax revenue by UGX 206 billion per year (about 57 million in USD) and modestly reduced inequality
- Most top 1% of earners did not report a lower income following the reform
- Top earners who worked in small companies not monitored by large or medium taxpayer offices were more likely to report less income
- Some employers transformed wages into dividends in order for employees to pay less tax
[Implicaitons]
- Progressive personal income tax reforms can enhance revenue and equity in low-income countries
- Focusing on high-income earners in smaller or less-monitored firms, where income shifting appears more prevalent can strengthen tax enforcement
- Uganda’s experience provides encouraging evidence for other Sub-Saharan African countries considering reforms to increase tax rates on high-income earners
- Expanding the use of administrative tax data can improve policy evaluation and design