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The Anatomy of Emerging-Market Business Cycles: Global Financial Shocks and Supply-Like Transmission
We investigate the business-cycle anatomy of emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) and find that their dominant cyclical shock is global in origin but supply-like in transmission. The shock is closely related to global risk conditions and movements in export and import prices. It generates broad expansions, raises total factor productivity, and does not increase inflation. Yet its footprint is concentrated at business-cycle rather than low frequencies, so the productivity-like behavior of EMDE cycles is not evidence that the dominant shock is a primitive technology or trend shock. We rationalize the evidence through a mechanism that links global financial easing to cross-firm reallocation: lower working-capital costs benefit more productive firms disproportionately, shift resources toward them, generate procyclical total factor productivity, and amplify aggregate activity. The results identify a supply-side channel of global-financial-cycle transmission in EMDEs.
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