최신자료
Maritime Disruptions and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices
Disruptions in vessel movements and maritime transportation networks may provide early signals of future pressure on fuel prices and inflation.
We examine the effect of the Iran war on retail fuel prices and the underlying mechanism through disruptions in maritime oil transportation. We find large and significant increases in retail fuel prices following the onset of the conflict. By week four of the event, gasoline prices had increased by about USD 0.22 per liter and diesel prices had increased by about USD 0.49 per liter relative to the counterfactual. We use automatic information system (AIS) shipping data from the Strait of Hormuz to identify the disruption of maritime activity. The results show a sharp contraction in maritime activity immediately after the onset of the war. Our back-of-the-envelope welfare analysis shows a consumer surplus loss of about USD 3.17 billion per day from gasoline and diesel price increases alone.
We examine the effect of the Iran war on retail fuel prices and the underlying mechanism through disruptions in maritime oil transportation. We find large and significant increases in retail fuel prices following the onset of the conflict. By week four of the event, gasoline prices had increased by about USD 0.22 per liter and diesel prices had increased by about USD 0.49 per liter relative to the counterfactual. We use automatic information system (AIS) shipping data from the Strait of Hormuz to identify the disruption of maritime activity. The results show a sharp contraction in maritime activity immediately after the onset of the war. Our back-of-the-envelope welfare analysis shows a consumer surplus loss of about USD 3.17 billion per day from gasoline and diesel price increases alone.
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