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The macroeconomic, social and environmental implications of the conflict in the Middle East for Asia and the Pacific
This policy paper examines how the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could affect longer-term macroeconomic, social and environmental outcomes in Asia and the Pacific and discusses how the region could strengthen its resilience in coping with shocks.
Even if the conflict ends soon, its adverse impacts would still be long-lasting. Slower economic growth is likely amid higher cost of living and borrowing, weaker goods exports, lower remittance and tourism receipts and smaller room for fiscal support. From a social perspective, the conflict could hold back the progress in eradicating poverty, narrowing inequalities, reducing hunger and cutting informal employment. From an environmental perspective, prolonged oil fires and spills would further degrade coastal and terrestrial ecosystems, while contaminated soil and surface waters aggravate water scarcity. The eventual impact on greenhouse gas emissions will depend on how much the conflict pushes forward a transition towards renewable energy and energy efficiency.
Given that these potential impacts will be uneven across countries, this paper identifies Asia-Pacific countries that are deemed more vulnerable than regional peers to plunging tourism and remittance receipts, increased food and energy insecurity risks and sudden loss in market sentiments. Many least developed countries and small island developing States are more exposed given their socioeconomic structures and conditions and exhibit weaker coping ability in various dimensions.
While governments in Asia and the Pacific have promptly launched various policy support measures, longer-term policies to enhance macroeconomic, social and environmental resilience remain essential.
Even if the conflict ends soon, its adverse impacts would still be long-lasting. Slower economic growth is likely amid higher cost of living and borrowing, weaker goods exports, lower remittance and tourism receipts and smaller room for fiscal support. From a social perspective, the conflict could hold back the progress in eradicating poverty, narrowing inequalities, reducing hunger and cutting informal employment. From an environmental perspective, prolonged oil fires and spills would further degrade coastal and terrestrial ecosystems, while contaminated soil and surface waters aggravate water scarcity. The eventual impact on greenhouse gas emissions will depend on how much the conflict pushes forward a transition towards renewable energy and energy efficiency.
Given that these potential impacts will be uneven across countries, this paper identifies Asia-Pacific countries that are deemed more vulnerable than regional peers to plunging tourism and remittance receipts, increased food and energy insecurity risks and sudden loss in market sentiments. Many least developed countries and small island developing States are more exposed given their socioeconomic structures and conditions and exhibit weaker coping ability in various dimensions.
While governments in Asia and the Pacific have promptly launched various policy support measures, longer-term policies to enhance macroeconomic, social and environmental resilience remain essential.
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