국제금융
The Fragility of the Global Trading System
We use a parsimonious gravity framework to simulate and compare five potential shocksto the global shipping system: closures of the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Straitof Malacca, and openings of the Northwest Passage and a hypothetical Kra Canal. Applyinga single, consistent methodology across all five scenarios allows relative comparisons. Usingcarefully measured seaborne distances between ports under each hypothetical geography,we find that a Panama closure would be the most consequential shock, reducing global tradeby nearly 3% compared to a default gravity prediction, followed by Suez (2.5%), Malacca,(1.7%), a Kra opening (+0.7%), and the Northwest Passage (+0.6%). Aggregate GDP and welfareeects are more muted, but show sizable heterogeneity across countries. For example,Panama loses over 9% of GDP from a Panama closure, Egypt and Sudan over 5% from Suez,and Malaysia over 4% from Malacca.
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