국제무역
Trading Places: How Trade Policy Is Reshaping Multinational Firms‘ Location
This paper provides new evidence on tariff-induced reorganization of multinational production. Exploiting the 2018？2019 U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, we show that Chinese MNEs expanded foreign affiliates disproportionately in third countries with high revealed production suitability for serving the U.S. market, especially in tariff-exposed sectors. Trade agreements with the U.S. amplified this reallocation. We also document that firms anticipated these trade policy changes as tariff increases began to be proposed in 2016-2017. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest tariff-induced Chinese FDI in third countries accounts for 43？52% of Chinese cross-border investment projects.
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