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Outlook and Challenges for Local Currency Transactions: An Analysis of the Trend Toward Dedollarization, Centered on Asia
Sustainable expansion of local currency trade invoicing requires well-developed foreign exchange markets and credible bilateral and multilateral policy frameworks. Since the late 2010s, rising geopolitical tensions―particularly between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)―have begun to affect currency choices in trade and investment across Asia. Although the US dollar remains the dominant international currency, emerging economies are increasingly promoting local currency-denominated transactions. The PRC has advanced the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB); at the same time, its global payment share remains limited in SWIFT statistics, and RMB usage has expanded through alternative infrastructures such as the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System. In Southeast Asia, Thailand has experienced a notable increase in local currency transactions following regulatory easing. We argue that the sustainable expansion of local currency trade invoicing requires well-developed foreign exchange markets and credible bilateral and multilateral policy frameworks. However, excessive currency and capital controls may hinder long-term progress. The analysis highlights both the potential and the constraints of ongoing efforts to diversify settlement currencies beyond the US dollar.
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