최신자료
Perspectives on supply chains and inflation
We develop a framework to analyze the effects of supply chain shocks on inflation. One channel from supply chain shocks to inflation runs through production costs. We argue the effects of these cost shocks hinge on whether those shocks materialize immediately and are transitory, or whether they are persistent and anticipated. Supply chain constraints represent a second alternative channel through which disruptions that constrain domestic supply affect inflation. We first present these channels in a stylized aggregate demand and supply framework, and we then discuss findings from our own research and the extant literature about how each channel has affected U.S. inflation. We also discuss how recent tariff shocks may be interpreted through the lens of our frameworks. We then draw out implications for the conduct of fiscal and monetary policies when supply chains may be constrained.
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