국제무역
Not Out of the Woods Yet
[Main Points]
- Growth was 0.3 per cent in June. Robust growth in services offset falls in production and construction. The production sector was lifted by mining and quarrying, with manufacturing declining by 0.5 per cent for the month.
- GDP grew by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter. Quarterly growth was driven by services while production stagnated. Construction grew in the second quarter despite reporting declines in output in each month.
- ICT underpins recent investment growth. Investment grew by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter, driven by a 7.4 per cent rise in investment in ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment.
- We forecast growth of 0.2 per cent in the third quarter. We expect shallow monthly growth outturns as the production sector loses momentum, though services are expected to hold up.
- “The UK economy has weathered the recent energy shock better than many feared. Services output grew by a sizeable 0.3 per cent in June, defying weak readings from business surveys and offsetting falls in construction and production output.
- That said, the recent pace of growth is unlikely to be sustained. Both inflation and unemployment are set to rise in the coming months while business sentiment remains fragile and could dampen further with ongoing energy price volatility. The economy has shown welcome resilience so far, but we are not out of the woods yet.”
- Growth was 0.3 per cent in June. Robust growth in services offset falls in production and construction. The production sector was lifted by mining and quarrying, with manufacturing declining by 0.5 per cent for the month.
- GDP grew by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter. Quarterly growth was driven by services while production stagnated. Construction grew in the second quarter despite reporting declines in output in each month.
- ICT underpins recent investment growth. Investment grew by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter, driven by a 7.4 per cent rise in investment in ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment.
- We forecast growth of 0.2 per cent in the third quarter. We expect shallow monthly growth outturns as the production sector loses momentum, though services are expected to hold up.
- “The UK economy has weathered the recent energy shock better than many feared. Services output grew by a sizeable 0.3 per cent in June, defying weak readings from business surveys and offsetting falls in construction and production output.
- That said, the recent pace of growth is unlikely to be sustained. Both inflation and unemployment are set to rise in the coming months while business sentiment remains fragile and could dampen further with ongoing energy price volatility. The economy has shown welcome resilience so far, but we are not out of the woods yet.”
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