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UK Economy Beset By Sluggish Growth and High Inflation
The labour market remains strong; however, because of anemic growth, we forecast a slow rise in unemployment in the coming year, peaking at around 4.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2024.
Our view remains that the participation rate for the working-age population will return to its preCovid level over the course of the next few years as workers in the 50-64 age group return to the labour force, as they find their savings run down, and fewer workers retire early.
Despite higher interest rates, there has been a significant increase in business and consumer confidence across a range of survey and sentiment indicators. This may seem surprising against a backdrop of increasing interest rates and high inflation. However, it may be better to characterise this reported increase in confidence as a collective sense amongst business and consumers that, perhaps, the worst of the energy price shock is behind us.
The labour supply shortage and the chronic investment deficit remain. We feel the budget measures were a step in the right direction but insufficient to deliver the needed structural changes to encourage a return of stronger productivity growth to the UK economy.
Our view remains that the participation rate for the working-age population will return to its preCovid level over the course of the next few years as workers in the 50-64 age group return to the labour force, as they find their savings run down, and fewer workers retire early.
Despite higher interest rates, there has been a significant increase in business and consumer confidence across a range of survey and sentiment indicators. This may seem surprising against a backdrop of increasing interest rates and high inflation. However, it may be better to characterise this reported increase in confidence as a collective sense amongst business and consumers that, perhaps, the worst of the energy price shock is behind us.
The labour supply shortage and the chronic investment deficit remain. We feel the budget measures were a step in the right direction but insufficient to deliver the needed structural changes to encourage a return of stronger productivity growth to the UK economy.
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