Global economic implications of the 2026 Middle East war | 국외연구자료

KDI 경제교육·정보센터

Economic Information and Education Center

전망·동향

Global economic implications of the 2026 Middle East war

PIIE

2026.06.15

This paper explores two scenarios for the potential economic effects of a Middle East war that causes a spike in energy prices. In the first, oil prices surge for one year to around $120 per barrel, while prices also rise sharply for liquefied natural gas, refined petroleum, and fertilizer; in the second, energy prices remain elevated for three years. We find in both scenarios, global growth slows relative to our baseline projection, but the effects are felt very unevenly. Countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil, petroleum, natural gas, and fertilizers experience the largest declines in GDP and increases in inflation. The effects on different sectors vary according to their energy sources, both directly through different energy dependence and indirectly through production networks. Also, trade relationships matter because as the global economy slows, countries such as China experience a decline in export demand, worsening GDP losses, even though China has large domestic supplies of oil, gas, and fertilizer.

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