최신자료
On the Resilience of Payment Methods
We study the resilience of payment systems to large disruptions in digital infrastructure caused by natural disasters and outages. We combine high-frequency county-level electricity outage data with detailed weather records, transaction-level expenditure data, household scanner data, and new representative surveys from the United States, Spain, and Sweden. Event-study evidence shows that natural disasters―especially hurricanes―generate persistent outages that sharply reduce expenditures. Natural disasters by themselves do not alter households‘ choice of payment method; instead, shifts toward cash arise through three channels: electronic payment methods become unavailable, households increase cash holdings for precautionary reasons, and cash is subsequently spent once available (＂cash burn＂). Consistent with these mechanisms, payment composition shifts markedly: after disasters digital payments decline and cash usage rises, particularly in areas experiencing outages. Survey evidence confirms that nearly half of consumers are unable to use their preferred electronic payment during outages and that cash serves as a key fallback. We find that greater access to cash increases the likelihood of completing transactions during outages and mitigates expenditure declines. Together, the observational, survey, and experimental components of the paper show that cash plays a critical role in sustaining economic activity during payment-system disruptions.
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