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Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2026: A Fragile Outlook as Energy Market Disruptions Persist
The growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific (DAP) is lowered to 4.9% in 2026―down from the 5.1% projected in April, and 0.6 percentage points below the 5.5% growth recorded in 2025. The Middle East conflict has led to prolonged disruption to energy and supply chains, raising production costs and dampening economic activity. The growth projection is maintained at 5.1% in 2027, reflecting recovering activity as these pressures ease.
In developing East Asia, the outlook is maintained at 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027 on the strength of resilient exports and continued infrastructure investment in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), despite weak private consumption and rising geopolitical risks.
South Asia‘s growth forecasts are reduced to 6.0% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, weighed down by higher oil prices, rising freight costs, and uncertainty over remittances stemming from the conflict.
Developing Southeast Asia‘s growth forecast is downgraded slightly to 4.6% in 2026, reflecting heightened uncertainty, weaker external demand, and rising commodity costs linked to the conflict. The 2027 projection is maintained at 4.8%.
Growth forecasts for the Caucasus and Central and West Asia are lowered to 3.8% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027 in response to trade disruption, rising trade costs, and prolonged geopolitical tensions.
The Pacific‘s growth outlook is lowered to 3.3% in 2026 as higher fuel, food, and input costs stemming from the conflict dampen economic activity despite government mitigation measures. The 2027 projection is unchanged.
Inflation in DAP is projected to rise to 4.3% in 2026, from 3.0% in 2025, driven by elevated oil and gas prices and spillover to other commodities that broadens price pressures across the region. It will ease to 3.4% in 2027.
In developing East Asia, the outlook is maintained at 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027 on the strength of resilient exports and continued infrastructure investment in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), despite weak private consumption and rising geopolitical risks.
South Asia‘s growth forecasts are reduced to 6.0% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, weighed down by higher oil prices, rising freight costs, and uncertainty over remittances stemming from the conflict.
Developing Southeast Asia‘s growth forecast is downgraded slightly to 4.6% in 2026, reflecting heightened uncertainty, weaker external demand, and rising commodity costs linked to the conflict. The 2027 projection is maintained at 4.8%.
Growth forecasts for the Caucasus and Central and West Asia are lowered to 3.8% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027 in response to trade disruption, rising trade costs, and prolonged geopolitical tensions.
The Pacific‘s growth outlook is lowered to 3.3% in 2026 as higher fuel, food, and input costs stemming from the conflict dampen economic activity despite government mitigation measures. The 2027 projection is unchanged.
Inflation in DAP is projected to rise to 4.3% in 2026, from 3.0% in 2025, driven by elevated oil and gas prices and spillover to other commodities that broadens price pressures across the region. It will ease to 3.4% in 2027.
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